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Monte Carlo
Sharpe ratio
Rebalancing analyser
Dividend calendar
Correlation matrix
Real portfolio tracker
+ more
Why use PortfolioCalc
Professional-grade · Free + Pro
Everything a fund manager uses.
Now in your browser.
Save a portfolio and unlock a full suite of analytics tools — the same metrics professionals use, explained in plain English.
Monte Carlo projection
1,000 simulated futures for your portfolio. See the realistic range of outcomes — pessimistic, median, and optimistic — with inflation adjustment.
Pessimistic
$380k
Median
$740k
Optimistic
$1.4M
Risk analytics
Sharpe ratio, Beta, Max Drawdown, and Value at Risk — the four metrics every professional uses to understand whether a return is worth the risk.
Sharpe ratio
1.42 · Good
Beta vs S&P 500
0.87 · Defensive
Max drawdown
-18.4% · Moderate
Value at Risk (95%)
-6.2%/mo
Diversification check
Correlation matrix and sector exposure chart reveal if you're truly diversified — or just holding the same bet in five different names.
Sector exposure
Technology 55%
Healthcare 22%
Financials 14%
Other 9%
Dividend income calendar
See which months your dividends land and how much to expect. Month-by-month forecast based on the last 12 months of real payment data.
Jan
$42
Feb
Mar
$118
Apr
$42
May
Jun
$118
Rebalancing analyser
See exactly how far your holdings have drifted from your target allocations — and what to buy or sell to get back on track.
AAPL
+6.2% over · Trim
VOO
-3.8% under · Buy $240
JNJ
On target · Hold
Performance vs S&P 500
Track your portfolio's performance against the benchmark over 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y periods. See your alpha — how much you beat or lagged the index.
Your portfolio
+18.4%
3-year return
S&P 500
+31.5%
Alpha: -13.1%
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Includes
✓ Up to 2 portfolios
✓ Up to 5 holdings per portfolio
✓ Basic projection (bear/base/bull)
✓ Risk score & crash simulation
✓ S&P 500 benchmark
✓ PDF export & shareable links
✓ Transaction history & lot tracking
✗ AI analyst & portfolio builder
✗ Auto-contributions & DCA
✗ Monthly email recap
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✓ Advanced lot tracking & multi-lot P&L
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✓ Dividend income calendar
✓ Correlation matrix & TWR
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Portfolio builder
Build your portfolio & see where it goes
Interactive tool
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Sharpe ratio · Beta · Monte Carlo · Rebalancing analyser · Dividend calendar · and more
Portfolio holdings
How to use
Target: 0%
No holdings yet
Add a stock or ETF to start building your portfolio
Quick add:
AAPL
VOO
MSFT
NVDA
Already own stocks? Add them, then click own? to enter shares and see your real P&L.
Targets set here are used by the Rebalance tab and contribution splitter.
Investment plan & projection
Portfolio value
—
Projection starts from
—
—
Projection will appear here
Add at least one stock on the left to generate your investment projection
Education
How to read your results
A step-by-step guide to understanding every number in your projection. Start here if you're new to PortfolioCalc.
1
Start with the blended CAGR
▼
The label above the chart shows your blended CAGR — the weighted average yearly return across all holdings, calculated from real historical price data. This is the geometric mean return — it already accounts for all good and bad years including crashes. With rebalancing on, a ↺ badge appears.
What is good? 7–10%/yr is solid long-term. Below 5% is conservative. Above 20% means high concentration in volatile assets — check the risk score.
2
Read the scenario cards
▼
Focus on the Base case — the central card is wider and shows the most likely outcome, your real (inflation-adjusted) value, and a plain-English verdict. Bear and Bull show the realistic range.
Bear
Half historical rate — worst realistic outcome.
Base
Full historical average — most likely outcome. Plan around this.
Bull
1.5× historical rate — best realistic outcome.
3
Understand the chart lines
▼
Base (green) — most likely value each year
Bull (blue dashed) — best case upside
Bear (red dashed) — worst case. If above grey line, still profitable
Invested (grey) — total money put in. Any line below = a loss
Real value (amber) — base case in today's purchasing power
S&P 500 (purple) — same money in a pure index fund
4
Check the goal tracker
▼
e.g. Reached in year 14 — the base case hits your goal in that year. e.g. Need $823/mo — how much more you'd need to save monthly to reach the goal earlier.Tip: the contributions vs growth bar shows how much comes from savings vs compound returns. In long horizons, growth dominates contributions — which is why starting early matters so much.
5
Read the risk score
▼
No universally right score — it depends on your age and timeline. Age 25 can tolerate 70+. Near retirement, aim for under 40. Expand the risk section to see estimated max drawdown and annual volatility.
0–20
Very low
21–40
Low
41–60
Moderate
61–80
High
81–100
Very high
Watch out
5 common mistakes reading projections
Learn these once and you will read every financial projection — not just ours — more clearly and honestly.
01
Planning around the bull case
The bull case is a best case, not a plan. It requires markets to outperform their own history by 50%. People who plan around it often feel behind schedule and take on extra risk trying to catch up. Plan around the base case. Treat bull as a nice surprise.
02
Ignoring the real (inflation-adjusted) value
Seeing "$1,000,000" in 20 years feels great. But at 2.5% inflation that is only worth ~$610,000 in today's money — roughly what a mid-range home costs today. Always check the amber "After inflation" figure. The nominal number is what your account shows. The real number is what you can actually buy.
03
Forgetting taxes eat into your returns
All projections are gross — before tax. Capital gains tax, dividend tax, and fund fees can reduce your effective return by 0.5–2%/yr depending on your country and account type. Over 30 years, even 1%/yr less compounds into a dramatically smaller outcome. Tax-sheltered accounts (ISA, 401k, pension) reduce this significantly.
04
Treating historical CAGR as a guarantee
Apple returned +21%/yr over the last 30 years. That does not mean it will return +21%/yr for the next 30. Historical CAGR is the best available signal of a company's track record — not a promise. Only knowing which stocks would win in hindsight makes those numbers look that good. Diversification protects you from being wrong about any single company.
05
Stopping contributions after a good year
A good year feels like a finish line. It is not. Regular monthly contributions are often worth more than the lump sum you started with — especially in the early years. In our backtests, $500/month over 30 years adds $180,000 in contributions — that single habit generates over $680,000 of the final portfolio value at 8%/yr. Consistency beats timing every time.
Disclosures & Limitations
What this tool does — and doesn't — tell you
We believe in radical transparency. Before making any financial decision based on PortfolioCalc projections, please read and understand these limitations.
Past performance is not a guarantee
Every projection uses historical CAGR as its input — the actual return a stock produced over its measured history. This is the most reliable data available, but it does not mean the same return will continue. Markets change, companies evolve, and industries rise and fall. A stock that returned +20%/yr for 20 years may return 0% or go negative in the next 20.
Sequence-of-returns risk
Our model assumes a smooth, constant annual return each year. In reality, markets are volatile — a crash early in your investment period causes far more damage than the same crash late, even if the average return over 30 years is identical. A -40% crash in year 2 vs year 28 produces very different outcomes. The crash simulation tool helps you explore this, but the base projection does not model it.
Rebalancing is optional
When you set target allocations (e.g. 50% Apple, 50% S&P 500), our model holds those targets fixed and blends the CAGRs by default. In reality, if Apple doubles and the S&P 500 stays flat, your actual allocations shift to ~67/33. Rebalancing back to 50/50 each year would produce a different result. For long horizons with large CAGR spreads between holdings, the difference can be significant. Turn on the Rebalancing toggle above the chart to model annual rebalancing.
Taxes and fees are excluded
All projections show gross returns — before capital gains tax, dividend tax, fund management fees, and brokerage commissions. Depending on your country and account type (taxable vs ISA/401k/pension), taxes alone can reduce your real return by 0.5–2%/yr. A 30-year projection can look very different net of taxes. Always consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
Hindsight bias in backtests
It is easy to build a portfolio of Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia in 2024 knowing what they returned since 1994. In 1994, no one knew which companies would win. Any backtest showing impressive returns from stocks chosen after the fact is subject to hindsight bias. Use historical CAGR as a signal of business quality, not as a promise of future returns.
Not financial advice
PortfolioCalc is an educational planning tool. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. The AI analysis is generated by a language model and may contain errors or omissions. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions, especially for large sums or retirement planning.
What our backtests show
Real portfolios from 1994–2025 · $10k starting capital + $500/month
Here's how different strategies actually performed over 20–30 years with real price data. Note how equity exposure dominates defensive portfolios — and how hindsight bias inflates stock-picking returns.
S&P 500 (30yr)
$875k
+361% ROI · 8.1%/yr
60/40 Portfolio (30yr)
$446k
+135% ROI · barely beats inflation
AAPL + MSFT (30yr)
$7.59M
+3,894% ROI · hindsight bias
Bonds + Gold (30yr)
$277k
+46% ROI · lost to inflation
FAANG 4-stock (20yr)
$2.02M
+1,453% ROI · concentrated risk
Berkshire B (30yr)
$1.73M
+812% ROI · beat the index
These figures use real historical adjusted closing prices (Jan 1994–Jan 2025) with $10,000 starting capital and $500/month contributions. The model's base case matches actual outcomes exactly when given the real historical CAGR — confirming the projection math is correct. The key lesson: equity exposure matters enormously over long horizons, and even a pure S&P 500 index turns $190k of contributions into $875k. Defensive-only portfolios (bonds + gold) returned just $277k on the same contributions — less than 0.7× in real purchasing power.